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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.88+5.62vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.52+6.04vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.55+9.14vs Predicted
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4George Washington University3.41+4.18vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.41+3.16vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.83+0.59vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.730.00vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+2.06vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-1.83vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida3.15-0.39vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.05-1.12vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.72-4.71vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.45-0.98vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93-4.03vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.52-3.10vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.55vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-4.02vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College2.96-8.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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8.04Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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12.14University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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8.18George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.16Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.59Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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7.0Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.06St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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7.17U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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9.61University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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9.88Harvard University3.050.1%1st Place
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7.29Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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12.02Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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9.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.0%1st Place
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11.9Boston University2.520.0%1st Place
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13.45SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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12.98University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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9.93Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pearson Potts | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Michael Croteau | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 10.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Dan Nickerson | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 9.5% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Connor Corgard | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Edmund Cooper | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Michael Drumm | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| Joseph Kiss | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Eric Siegel | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.6% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% |
| Nicholas Arabia | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 11.5% |
| Peter Maes | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 22.9% |
| Simone Staff | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 19.4% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.