← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+6.51vs Predicted
-
2George Washington University3.41+6.45vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University3.05+7.02vs Predicted
-
4Boston University2.52+7.77vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+5.02vs Predicted
-
6Roger Williams University3.73+1.00vs Predicted
-
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93+3.27vs Predicted
-
8University of South Florida3.15+1.24vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+3.83vs Predicted
-
10Dartmouth College3.83-3.21vs Predicted
-
11Washington College2.45+1.28vs Predicted
-
12Connecticut College2.96-1.49vs Predicted
-
13Tufts University3.41-4.89vs Predicted
-
14Brown University3.88-7.75vs Predicted
-
15SUNY Maritime College2.14-1.69vs Predicted
-
16Bowdoin College3.52-8.13vs Predicted
-
17University of Vermont2.55-5.04vs Predicted
-
18Yale University3.72-11.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
-
8.45George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
-
10.02Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
-
11.77Boston University2.520.0%1st Place
-
10.02St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
-
7.0Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
-
10.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.0%1st Place
-
9.24University of South Florida3.150.0%1st Place
-
12.83University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
-
6.79Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
-
12.28Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
-
10.51Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
-
8.11Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
-
6.25Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
-
13.31SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
-
7.87Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
-
11.96University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
-
6.82Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikole Barnes | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Kai Friesecke | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| Nicholas Arabia | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 12.1% |
| Edmund Cooper | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Connor Corgard | 8.6% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Simone Staff | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 15.5% | 14.4% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 15.0% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Pearson Potts | 11.4% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Peter Maes | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 22.6% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 12.2% |
| Joseph Kiss | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.