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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University3.41+7.16vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.41+6.12vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.73+3.86vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93+5.76vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.72+1.70vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.88+0.21vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.05+2.39vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.52-0.57vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.15-0.11vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-2.72vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+1.51vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.83-5.36vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.55-1.74vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.45-2.54vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96-5.29vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.52-4.42vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.86-0.70vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College2.14-5.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.16George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.12Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.86Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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9.76Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.0%1st Place
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6.7Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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6.21Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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9.39Harvard University3.050.1%1st Place
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7.43Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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8.89University of South Florida3.150.0%1st Place
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7.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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12.51University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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6.64Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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11.26University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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11.46Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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9.71St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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11.58Boston University2.520.0%1st Place
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16.3Connecticut College0.860.0%1st Place
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12.75SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Friesecke | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Dan Nickerson | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Connor Corgard | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 4.3% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Joseph Kiss | 9.4% | 12.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Pearson Potts | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Simone Staff | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 9.4% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Steven Pelissier | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 3.8% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 4.6% |
| Edmund Cooper | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Arabia | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 4.7% |
| Matthew Lau-Hansen | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 7.3% | 12.4% | 61.5% |
| Peter Maes | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 16.9% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.