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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.73+5.95vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.83+4.47vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.88+3.29vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+2.92vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.05+4.27vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+3.79vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida3.15+1.95vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.72-1.35vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College3.52-1.60vs Predicted
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10George Washington University3.41-1.83vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.14+2.03vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.41-3.76vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93-3.27vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.86+2.08vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-2.65vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.52-4.42vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.45-5.11vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont2.55-6.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.95Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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6.47Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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6.29Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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6.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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9.27Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.79St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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8.95University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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6.65Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.4Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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8.17George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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13.03SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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8.24Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.0%1st Place
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16.08Connecticut College0.860.0%1st Place
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12.35University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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11.58Boston University2.520.0%1st Place
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11.89Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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11.24University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Corgard | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Pearson Potts | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
| Edmund Cooper | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 1.7% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Joseph Kiss | 9.1% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Peter Maes | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 17.1% | 13.0% |
| Dan Nickerson | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Matthew Lau-Hansen | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 57.4% |
| Simone Staff | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 14.3% | 7.8% |
| Nicholas Arabia | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 5.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 6.1% |
| Steven Pelissier | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.