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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.72+6.38vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida3.15+7.80vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+7.64vs Predicted
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4George Washington University3.41+4.34vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.05+4.90vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+1.48vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.96+3.35vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.83-1.25vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.73-1.89vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.88-3.19vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.45+1.44vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.55+0.35vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.32vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-7.18vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.41-6.60vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-2.95vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College3.52-8.84vs Predicted
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18Boston University2.52-6.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.38Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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9.8University of South Florida3.150.0%1st Place
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10.64St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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8.34George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.9Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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10.35Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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6.75Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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7.11Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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6.81Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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12.44Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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12.35University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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13.32SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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6.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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8.4Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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13.05University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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8.16Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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11.91Boston University2.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Kiss | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Edmund Cooper | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 4.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% |
| Nikole Barnes | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Connor Corgard | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Pearson Potts | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 3.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 14.1% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 14.1% |
| Peter Maes | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 22.2% |
| Ty Ingram | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Dan Nickerson | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Simone Staff | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 18.8% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Arabia | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.