Race 2A

mt-hope-bay-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
William Crary 7.9% 10.3% 10.2% 9.0% 10.0% 8.9% 8.9% 9.4% 6.5% 6.9% 5.9% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Patrick Penwell 3.5% 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 7.2% 6.7% 6.5% 7.9% 8.3% 9.9% 10.0% 9.7% 8.2% 4.2% 1.6% 0.4%
Emily Petno 5.5% 5.5% 4.8% 8.3% 6.9% 8.0% 8.5% 8.1% 10.3% 9.7% 10.0% 6.0% 5.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4%
Timothy Harding 4.9% 7.1% 6.3% 7.2% 7.3% 8.9% 8.2% 10.0% 9.3% 8.1% 8.7% 7.4% 4.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1%
Michael Gemperline 8.4% 9.4% 9.4% 10.2% 9.1% 10.3% 8.5% 8.4% 8.1% 7.4% 5.8% 3.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
John Wehner 4.4% 4.5% 6.4% 6.6% 7.4% 7.7% 7.8% 9.6% 9.2% 8.5% 9.2% 8.6% 5.9% 2.9% 1.2% 0.1%
Casey Gowrie 10.6% 8.8% 8.3% 10.8% 10.0% 9.3% 9.4% 8.1% 8.3% 6.3% 5.7% 3.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Yann Cudennec 2.1% 2.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.9% 5.0% 5.5% 5.1% 8.4% 8.5% 9.8% 13.0% 15.0% 9.3% 4.0% 0.5%
Martim Anderson 20.2% 16.5% 14.5% 11.7% 10.5% 9.1% 6.5% 4.4% 3.1% 1.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mackenzie Bryan 18.8% 17.3% 16.4% 14.1% 10.3% 7.3% 6.4% 4.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley Brown 7.9% 6.2% 7.5% 6.4% 7.4% 8.2% 8.7% 9.8% 8.2% 10.4% 8.2% 6.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Michael Rottier 3.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 6.4% 5.7% 7.5% 6.8% 8.6% 8.4% 8.6% 12.5% 11.8% 7.0% 1.7% 0.5%
Eric Sowell 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.6% 3.3% 4.4% 6.0% 10.2% 20.0% 29.1% 17.9%
Brian Reilly 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.0% 2.3% 2.4% 3.6% 5.5% 10.3% 21.4% 29.2% 18.4%
Joseph Dragon 1.4% 1.6% 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% 2.4% 4.0% 4.5% 4.7% 6.6% 6.4% 11.3% 17.9% 19.2% 11.5% 3.4%
Kelsey Delosh 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 2.8% 4.2% 8.9% 20.4% 58.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.