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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.76+2.31vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.66vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-0.26vs Predicted
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4Washington College1.81+1.45vs Predicted
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5Villanova University1.59+1.09vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology1.40+0.59vs Predicted
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7Princeton University0.55+1.56vs Predicted
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8Monmouth University-0.09+2.38vs Predicted
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9Drexel University-0.06+1.43vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College0.79-1.72vs Predicted
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11Penn State University1.35-4.27vs Predicted
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12University of Delaware0.40-2.78vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.10-3.09vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-1.25-1.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.31U. S. Naval Academy2.760.2%1st Place
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4.66University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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2.74St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.3%1st Place
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5.45Washington College1.810.1%1st Place
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6.09Villanova University1.590.1%1st Place
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6.59Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.1%1st Place
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8.56Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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10.38Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.43Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.28Ocean County College0.790.0%1st Place
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6.73Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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9.22University of Delaware0.400.0%1st Place
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9.91University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.100.0%1st Place
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12.65Rutgers University-1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Madigan | 22.3% | 22.4% | 16.8% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joe Farned | 11.4% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 31.5% | 23.3% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eleanor Conroy | 7.3% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Domenic Re | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Julian Fraize | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Grasso | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.6% |
| Brogan Savage | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 19.3% | 14.2% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 17.7% | 19.0% | 10.7% |
| Liam Boyle | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 1.8% |
| John Shanahan | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Caroline Udell | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 4.6% |
| Samuel Haksteen | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 16.4% | 7.8% |
| Taylor Niles | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 57.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.