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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.86+5.52vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida1.60+4.85vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+6.46vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.97+4.58vs Predicted
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5George Washington University0.93+4.01vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.22+1.50vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.05+1.34vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston1.81-1.83vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+0.66vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island0.12+1.20vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University-1.38-5.00vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.65-0.38vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College-0.13+0.05vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan-0.64-0.28vs Predicted
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15Fordham University0.71-4.42vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.48-6.08vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.02-12.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.52Georgetown University1.869.7%1st Place
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6.85University of South Florida1.608.2%1st Place
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9.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.5%1st Place
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8.58Old Dominion University0.974.9%1st Place
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9.01George Washington University0.934.3%1st Place
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7.5Northeastern University1.226.9%1st Place
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8.34University of Hawaii1.056.0%1st Place
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6.17College of Charleston1.8110.2%1st Place
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9.66St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.5%1st Place
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11.2University of Rhode Island0.122.6%1st Place
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6.0Jacksonville University-1.3810.1%1st Place
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11.62Christopher Newport University0.652.4%1st Place
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13.05Connecticut College-0.131.8%1st Place
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13.72University of Michigan-0.641.2%1st Place
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10.58Fordham University0.713.4%1st Place
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9.92University of Vermont0.484.2%1st Place
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4.82Tulane University2.0215.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Eva Ermlich | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Emma Tallman | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.2% |
| Emily Allen | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 10.2% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 17.0% | 23.9% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 15.8% | 33.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% |
| Audrey Commerford | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% |
| Samantha Gardner | 15.2% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.