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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.65+8.08vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.05+9.64vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.55+2.58vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.73+4.48vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont3.63+3.92vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+3.06vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+0.13vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.70+0.66vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.74-0.49vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.18+1.12vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.80-2.54vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.05-0.26vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.95-5.45vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.27-3.85vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College3.23-4.40vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College3.18-5.02vs Predicted
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17Boston College4.12-9.85vs Predicted
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18Michigan State University1.36-1.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.08College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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11.64University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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5.58Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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8.48Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.92University of Vermont3.630.0%1st Place
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9.06Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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7.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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8.66Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.51U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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11.12Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.46Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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11.74Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.55Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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10.15Brown University3.270.0%1st Place
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10.6Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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10.98Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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7.15Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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16.18Michigan State University1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Reynolds | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 5.3% |
| Graham Landy | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Alexander Stewart | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Astwood | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Mary Hall | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Ian Storck | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 4.3% |
| Hans Henken | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Michael Drumm | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 6.6% |
| William Macdonald | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Allman | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 3.3% |
| Bryce Kopp | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 3.2% |
| Jack McGuire | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
| Raul Rios | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Bill Weiland | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 11.2% | 63.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.