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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.18+10.01vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.74+6.72vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.65+6.12vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.55+1.41vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+2.13vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.18+4.89vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.05+4.42vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.95-0.41vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+0.03vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.73-1.14vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.23-0.23vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.63-2.64vs Predicted
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13Michigan State University1.36+3.15vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.27-3.76vs Predicted
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15Boston College4.12-8.09vs Predicted
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16Boston University3.70-7.21vs Predicted
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17Stanford University3.80-8.59vs Predicted
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18Harvard University3.05-6.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.01Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Naval Academy3.740.0%1st Place
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9.12College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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5.41Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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7.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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10.89Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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11.42University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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7.59Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.0%1st Place
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8.86Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.77Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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9.36University of Vermont3.630.0%1st Place
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16.15Michigan State University1.360.0%1st Place
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10.24Brown University3.270.0%1st Place
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6.91Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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8.79Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.41Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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11.21Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGuire | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 4.8% |
| Mary Hall | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Jake Reynolds | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Graham Landy | 13.3% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Avery Fanning | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Ian Storck | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 4.5% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 5.3% |
| William Macdonald | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Stewart | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Bryce Kopp | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 4.0% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 1.1% |
| Bill Weiland | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 64.1% |
| Nathan Allman | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 3.4% |
| Raul Rios | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Astwood | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Hans Henken | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 5.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.