← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Roger Williams University3.95+6.91vs Predicted
-
2Connecticut College3.23+8.94vs Predicted
-
3Stanford University3.80+5.51vs Predicted
-
4Yale University4.55+1.41vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+2.09vs Predicted
-
6Boston College4.12+0.98vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy3.74+1.53vs Predicted
-
8University of Rhode Island3.05+3.30vs Predicted
-
9College of Charleston3.65-0.15vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont3.63-0.79vs Predicted
-
11Harvard University3.05+0.48vs Predicted
-
12Brown University3.27-1.08vs Predicted
-
13Michigan State University1.36+3.14vs Predicted
-
14Tufts University3.73-5.68vs Predicted
-
15Boston University3.70-6.39vs Predicted
-
16Bowdoin College3.18-5.04vs Predicted
-
17Dartmouth College3.18-6.01vs Predicted
-
18Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-9.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.91Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
-
10.94Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
-
8.51Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
-
5.41Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
-
7.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
-
6.98Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
-
8.53U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
-
11.3University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
-
8.85College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
-
9.21University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
-
11.48Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
-
10.92Brown University3.270.0%1st Place
-
16.14Michigan State University1.360.0%1st Place
-
8.32Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
-
8.61Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
-
10.96Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
-
10.99Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
-
8.84Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Bryce Kopp | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 3.6% |
| Hans Henken | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Graham Landy | 14.3% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 8.3% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Raul Rios | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Mary Hall | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 4.2% |
| Jake Reynolds | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 5.5% |
| Nathan Allman | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 3.6% |
| Bill Weiland | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 64.1% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Astwood | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.8% |
| Ian Storck | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 3.5% |
| Alexander Stewart | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.