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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.18+10.03vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.18+9.13vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.23+7.88vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.80+4.21vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.27+5.41vs Predicted
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6Yale University4.55-0.57vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.73+1.56vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+0.98vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.70-0.30vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.05+1.61vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.63-1.83vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-4.49vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island3.05-1.76vs Predicted
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14Boston College4.12-7.21vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.95-7.41vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.65-6.99vs Predicted
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17Michigan State University1.36-0.66vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy3.74-9.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.03Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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11.13Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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10.88Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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8.21Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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10.41Brown University3.270.0%1st Place
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5.43Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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8.56Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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8.7Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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11.61Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.17University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
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7.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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11.24University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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6.79Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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7.59Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.01College of Charleston3.650.0%1st Place
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16.34Michigan State University1.360.0%1st Place
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8.39U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGuire | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 4.2% |
| Ian Storck | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 3.7% |
| Bryce Kopp | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 3.6% |
| Hans Henken | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 3.9% |
| Graham Landy | 13.0% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Alexander Stewart | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Ryan Astwood | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 5.5% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Avery Fanning | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 4.5% |
| Raul Rios | 8.8% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| William Macdonald | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Jake Reynolds | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Bill Weiland | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 66.2% |
| Mary Hall | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.