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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island3.05+10.52vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.55+3.55vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+4.39vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.65+4.85vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.23+5.52vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.70+2.71vs Predicted
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7Boston College4.12+0.03vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05+3.27vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+0.04vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.27+0.78vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.74-2.21vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.18-0.78vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.80-4.80vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College3.18-3.44vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.95-7.38vs Predicted
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16Tufts University3.73-7.37vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont3.63-7.87vs Predicted
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18Michigan State University1.36-1.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.52University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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5.55Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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7.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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8.85College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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10.52Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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8.71Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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7.03Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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11.27Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.04Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.0%1st Place
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10.78Brown University3.270.0%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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11.22Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.2Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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10.56Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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7.62Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.63Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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9.13University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
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16.2Michigan State University1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Armstrong | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 6.3% |
| Graham Landy | 11.0% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Jake Reynolds | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Bryce Kopp | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 3.5% |
| Ryan Astwood | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Raul Rios | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 4.8% |
| Alexander Stewart | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Nathan Allman | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 2.2% |
| Mary Hall | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Ian Storck | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 4.8% |
| Hans Henken | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 4.2% |
| William Macdonald | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Bill Weiland | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 10.6% | 64.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.