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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College3.92+5.76vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.41+6.77vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.72+4.48vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.16+5.48vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.62+2.70vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.52+2.17vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.73+0.24vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.41+0.49vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.38-0.37vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.84-2.90vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.17-1.32vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.96-1.16vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-4.05vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.13-4.62vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.56-3.07vs Predicted
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16Stanford University2.93-5.37vs Predicted
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17Michigan State University0.41+0.05vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-5.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.76Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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8.77University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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7.48Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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9.48Harvard University3.160.1%1st Place
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7.7College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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8.17Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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7.24Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.49Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.63Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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7.1University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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9.68U. S. Naval Academy3.170.1%1st Place
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10.84Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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8.95Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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9.38Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
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11.93Brown University2.560.0%1st Place
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10.63Stanford University2.930.0%1st Place
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17.05Michigan State University0.410.0%1st Place
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12.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Bailey | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Joseph Kiss | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Gram Slattery | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
| Nick Johnstone | 7.6% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Michael Croteau | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 0.2% |
| Connor Corgard | 7.7% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Dan Nickerson | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Robert Floyd | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Rachel Bryer | 9.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Madigan | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 1.8% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 2.1% |
| David Larson | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
| Brendan Cook | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 0.9% |
| Timothy Harding | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 3.9% |
| Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% |
| Nicholas Caudell | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 78.9% |
| Dylan Finneran | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 21.5% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.