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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.62+6.93vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.92+4.70vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.38+5.86vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.73+3.19vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont3.41+3.52vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+6.88vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.96+3.35vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.72-0.76vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.17+0.52vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.16-0.11vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.13-1.13vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.56+0.24vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.93-2.59vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.41-5.75vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College3.52-6.94vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island3.84-9.10vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-7.74vs Predicted
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18Michigan State University0.41-1.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.93College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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6.7Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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8.86Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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7.19Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.52University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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12.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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10.35Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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7.24Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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9.52U. S. Naval Academy3.170.0%1st Place
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9.89Harvard University3.160.1%1st Place
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9.87Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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12.24Brown University2.560.0%1st Place
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10.41Stanford University2.930.0%1st Place
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8.25Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.06Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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6.9University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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9.26Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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16.91Michigan State University0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Johnstone | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Robert Floyd | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Connor Corgard | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Nate Jermain | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Dylan Finneran | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 21.4% | 8.4% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 1.3% |
| Joseph Kiss | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Madigan | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Gram Slattery | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 0.7% |
| Brendan Cook | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 1.8% |
| Timothy Harding | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 12.8% | 19.0% | 5.7% |
| Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 1.7% |
| Dan Nickerson | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Michael Croteau | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Rachel Bryer | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| David Larson | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Caudell | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 7.6% | 77.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.