← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Roger Williams University3.73+6.49vs Predicted
-
2Bowdoin College3.52+6.30vs Predicted
-
3University of Rhode Island3.84+4.00vs Predicted
-
4College of Charleston3.62+3.63vs Predicted
-
5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+4.09vs Predicted
-
6Harvard University3.16+3.68vs Predicted
-
7Stanford University2.93+3.55vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Naval Academy3.17+1.45vs Predicted
-
9Boston College3.92-2.54vs Predicted
-
10Boston University3.13+0.01vs Predicted
-
11Connecticut College2.96-0.43vs Predicted
-
12Dartmouth College3.38-2.98vs Predicted
-
13University of Vermont3.41-4.62vs Predicted
-
14Yale University3.72-6.95vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-2.16vs Predicted
-
16Tufts University3.41-7.40vs Predicted
-
17Michigan State University0.41+0.08vs Predicted
-
18Brown University2.56-6.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.49Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
-
8.3Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
-
7.0University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
-
7.63College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
-
9.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
-
9.68Harvard University3.160.0%1st Place
-
10.55Stanford University2.930.0%1st Place
-
9.45U. S. Naval Academy3.170.1%1st Place
-
6.46Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
-
10.01Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
-
10.57Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
-
9.02Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
-
8.38University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
-
7.05Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
-
12.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
-
8.6Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
-
17.08Michigan State University0.410.0%1st Place
-
11.8Brown University2.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Corgard | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Michael Croteau | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Rachel Bryer | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| David Larson | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| Gram Slattery | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 1.3% |
| Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 1.9% |
| Michael Madigan | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| William Bailey | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Cook | 6.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 1.5% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 2.2% |
| Robert Floyd | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| Nate Jermain | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Kiss | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Finneran | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Dan Nickerson | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Caudell | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 7.0% | 79.4% |
| Timothy Harding | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 15.6% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.