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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.77+9.54vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.02+7.60vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.08+2.45vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.57+3.05vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93+4.69vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.65+0.83vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.48+0.48vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.87+1.89vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont3.27-0.66vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.92+0.05vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.72-0.28vs Predicted
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12Stanford University2.92-1.79vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.94-3.47vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.19-5.57vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College3.21-6.49vs Predicted
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16Harvard University2.96-6.26vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61-5.84vs Predicted
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18Michigan State University-1.70-0.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.54Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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9.6U. S. Naval Academy3.020.0%1st Place
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5.45Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.05College of Charleston3.570.1%1st Place
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9.69Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.0%1st Place
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6.83Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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7.48Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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9.89Brown University2.870.0%1st Place
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8.34University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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10.05Bowdoin College2.920.1%1st Place
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10.72University of Rhode Island2.720.0%1st Place
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10.21Stanford University2.920.0%1st Place
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9.53Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.43Dartmouth College3.190.1%1st Place
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8.51Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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9.74Harvard University2.960.0%1st Place
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11.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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17.79Michigan State University-1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Vogel | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 0.3% |
| Addison Hackstaff | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 0.1% |
| Ian Barrows | 12.7% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Whipple | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 0.3% |
| Duncan Swain | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Harry Koeppel | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Kelly McGlynn | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 0.3% |
| Michael Booker | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| William Hawk | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 0.3% |
| Samuel Cushing | 4.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 0.8% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 0.7% |
| Michael Saldi | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 0.4% |
| Duncan Williford | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Mollerus | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 0.4% |
| Kayla Ellis | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 15.2% | 0.3% |
| Chelsea Bohn | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 95.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.