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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.10+4.38vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.77+8.69vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+8.30vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.96+5.49vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.21+3.50vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.94+3.69vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.65-0.10vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.19+0.66vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.48-1.58vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont3.27-1.40vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.72-0.27vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.57-4.54vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.87-3.14vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.02-4.94vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.92-5.27vs Predicted
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16Stanford University2.92-6.13vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.93-7.15vs Predicted
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18Michigan State University-1.70-0.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
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10.69Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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11.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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9.49Harvard University2.960.0%1st Place
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8.5Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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9.69Boston University2.940.0%1st Place
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6.9Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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8.66Dartmouth College3.190.1%1st Place
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7.42Boston College3.480.1%1st Place
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8.6University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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10.73University of Rhode Island2.720.0%1st Place
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7.46College of Charleston3.570.1%1st Place
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9.86Brown University2.870.0%1st Place
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9.06U. S. Naval Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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9.73Bowdoin College2.920.0%1st Place
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9.87Stanford University2.920.0%1st Place
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9.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.930.0%1st Place
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17.79Michigan State University-1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Kiss | 13.4% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 0.2% |
| Kayla Ellis | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 0.6% |
| Matthew Mollerus | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 0.2% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Michael Saldi | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 0.6% |
| Duncan Swain | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Duncan Williford | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 0.1% |
| Harry Koeppel | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Michael Booker | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Cushing | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 0.9% |
| Alexander Whipple | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Kelly McGlynn | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 0.4% |
| Addison Hackstaff | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 0.3% |
| William Hawk | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 0.2% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 0.4% |
| Cutter O'Connell | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 0.1% |
| Chelsea Bohn | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 95.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.