Race 1B

lake-champlain-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Charles Sinks 22.1% 18.5% 15.3% 11.8% 9.4% 7.7% 5.1% 4.3% 2.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Charles Welsh 7.9% 10.8% 8.6% 9.2% 8.4% 10.9% 9.9% 9.8% 7.5% 6.4% 4.2% 3.9% 1.8% 0.7%
Kendal Richardson 8.9% 10.2% 10.1% 10.3% 10.3% 9.6% 10.1% 8.9% 6.9% 6.1% 4.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.8%
Cooper Nefsky 3.7% 5.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.8% 7.6% 9.0% 9.2% 8.9% 9.1% 10.3% 7.2% 6.7% 2.7%
John Rolander 14.2% 14.2% 15.6% 12.5% 11.0% 10.5% 7.2% 6.3% 3.6% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Steven Pelissier 5.6% 6.3% 6.0% 7.0% 8.3% 9.7% 9.0% 8.8% 10.7% 8.2% 6.9% 8.7% 3.9% 0.9%
Markus Suorsa 1.3% 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 2.4% 2.5% 4.2% 4.0% 5.6% 5.4% 8.0% 10.7% 18.2% 32.3%
Dana Rohde 15.4% 14.8% 12.5% 13.9% 10.8% 8.6% 7.2% 5.1% 5.7% 3.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
John Cappetta 4.1% 2.3% 2.3% 3.9% 4.6% 5.0% 5.3% 7.6% 8.9% 10.9% 11.1% 10.9% 12.5% 10.6%
Reed Lorimer 5.5% 5.2% 7.4% 7.1% 8.4% 8.2% 10.0% 9.9% 8.8% 8.7% 8.2% 6.6% 4.8% 1.2%
Victoria McGruer 3.9% 3.3% 3.7% 5.4% 5.5% 6.2% 8.2% 8.5% 8.5% 9.8% 11.1% 10.5% 8.6% 6.8%
Karl Ryder 1.1% 1.5% 2.3% 1.5% 2.3% 3.2% 3.1% 4.5% 5.0% 6.4% 8.2% 14.5% 17.9% 28.5%
Thomas Gallagher 3.0% 2.4% 3.0% 4.2% 3.9% 5.1% 5.6% 7.2% 8.2% 9.4% 11.7% 11.0% 15.3% 10.0%
Philip Koch 3.3% 3.5% 4.6% 4.6% 7.9% 5.2% 6.1% 5.9% 9.0% 12.6% 11.0% 12.2% 8.8% 5.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.