Race 4B

lake-champlain-open

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

21.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Steven Pelissier 6.4% 5.9% 8.0% 7.6% 9.8% 9.7% 8.3% 10.5% 9.7% 7.7% 5.8% 6.7% 2.7% 1.2%
Cooper Nefsky 5.4% 5.3% 7.1% 6.9% 7.3% 7.6% 8.8% 9.7% 10.5% 11.4% 9.1% 5.4% 3.7% 1.8%
Charles Sinks 21.4% 19.3% 15.6% 11.3% 10.9% 7.7% 5.6% 4.1% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Thomas Gallagher 2.0% 2.8% 3.3% 4.7% 4.1% 5.4% 5.5% 8.3% 8.3% 9.7% 13.6% 12.7% 12.2% 7.4%
John Rolander 14.0% 16.5% 14.8% 12.6% 10.9% 9.3% 8.2% 5.2% 4.7% 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Philip Koch 4.1% 3.5% 3.0% 5.2% 4.6% 5.3% 6.8% 9.6% 10.0% 10.4% 11.1% 11.9% 9.4% 5.1%
Markus Suorsa 1.5% 1.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.6% 3.3% 4.0% 4.9% 4.8% 7.8% 9.5% 14.1% 17.4% 24.7%
Victoria McGruer 4.9% 4.0% 4.1% 5.9% 5.8% 7.1% 7.7% 6.4% 9.7% 11.3% 11.9% 9.6% 7.6% 4.0%
Kendal Richardson 9.4% 9.3% 9.7% 9.4% 10.2% 12.1% 10.3% 9.2% 7.8% 5.6% 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Charles Welsh 6.9% 8.2% 9.2% 10.1% 9.9% 9.8% 9.8% 9.5% 9.8% 6.8% 4.9% 3.0% 1.7% 0.4%
Reed Lorimer 6.5% 5.6% 7.3% 8.1% 7.2% 7.9% 10.6% 9.8% 8.4% 10.8% 7.6% 6.1% 3.3% 0.8%
Dana Rohde 14.8% 15.7% 13.6% 12.7% 11.2% 9.5% 8.1% 5.6% 4.0% 2.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
Karl Ryder 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 2.3% 3.3% 2.7% 4.2% 3.8% 5.3% 6.7% 11.7% 15.4% 20.1% 19.8%
Connor Bair-Cucchiaro 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 2.2% 2.6% 2.1% 3.4% 5.1% 6.3% 7.8% 12.0% 19.8% 34.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.