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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.86+5.21vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.47+4.24vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+6.56vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.81+1.95vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.48+4.74vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii0.47+3.84vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University-1.38-1.28vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.71+2.26vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.97-0.71vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.22-2.68vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.93-2.10vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida1.60-5.34vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.65-1.59vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-4.58vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College-0.13-2.07vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island0.12-4.82vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.64-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.21Georgetown University1.868.9%1st Place
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6.24Tulane University1.4710.8%1st Place
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9.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.913.8%1st Place
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5.95College of Charleston1.8112.3%1st Place
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9.74University of Vermont0.483.5%1st Place
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9.84University of Hawaii0.473.9%1st Place
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5.72Jacksonville University-1.3812.0%1st Place
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10.26Fordham University0.713.8%1st Place
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8.29Old Dominion University0.975.7%1st Place
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7.32Northeastern University1.227.0%1st Place
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8.9George Washington University0.935.2%1st Place
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6.66University of South Florida1.609.8%1st Place
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11.41Christopher Newport University0.652.9%1st Place
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9.42St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.6%1st Place
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12.93Connecticut College-0.131.6%1st Place
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11.18University of Rhode Island0.122.8%1st Place
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13.36University of Michigan-0.641.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 8.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Gabriela Vassel | 10.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Emma Tallman | 12.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Audrey Commerford | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% |
| Malia Johnson | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.1% |
| Emily Allen | 12.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 5.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Eva Ermlich | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 11.2% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 15.8% | 24.5% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 32.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.