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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University-1.38+4.86vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.86+4.33vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.65+8.30vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida1.60+2.44vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.22+2.21vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+3.79vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston1.81-1.00vs Predicted
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8Tulane University1.47-1.62vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii0.47+0.66vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.48-0.07vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-1.68vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.71-1.77vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.97-4.72vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College-0.29-1.25vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island0.12-3.79vs Predicted
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16George Washington University0.93-7.18vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.64-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.86Jacksonville University-1.3811.6%1st Place
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6.33Georgetown University1.869.1%1st Place
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11.3Christopher Newport University0.652.5%1st Place
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6.44University of South Florida1.6010.0%1st Place
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7.21Northeastern University1.227.7%1st Place
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9.79St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.0%1st Place
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6.0College of Charleston1.8111.7%1st Place
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6.38Tulane University1.4710.1%1st Place
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9.66University of Hawaii0.473.9%1st Place
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9.93University of Vermont0.483.8%1st Place
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9.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.7%1st Place
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10.23Fordham University0.714.0%1st Place
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8.28Old Dominion University0.975.7%1st Place
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12.75Connecticut College-0.291.7%1st Place
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11.21University of Rhode Island0.122.3%1st Place
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8.82George Washington University0.935.9%1st Place
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13.51University of Michigan-0.641.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Allen | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 9.1% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 11.1% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Eva Ermlich | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Emma Tallman | 11.7% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Gabriela Vassel | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Malia Johnson | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% |
| Audrey Commerford | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Natalie Fear | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 15.6% | 22.6% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 9.7% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 17.1% | 32.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.