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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.36+4.48vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.82+5.50vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.83+4.63vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.49+4.99vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+4.71vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+1.24vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.73+1.17vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.21vs Predicted
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9University of Buffalo2.44+4.58vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.43vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia2.39+2.79vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.05-0.81vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-1.74vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.19+0.58vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.68-2.54vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.44-6.84vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.97-5.92vs Predicted
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18Fordham University3.11-7.22vs Predicted
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19Brown University3.64-10.79vs Predicted
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20University of New Hampshire1.24-2.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.48Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.5Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.63Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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8.99Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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9.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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7.24St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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8.17College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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10.21University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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13.58University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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11.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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13.79University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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11.19SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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11.26University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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14.58University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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12.46Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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9.16U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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11.08Roger Williams University2.970.0%1st Place
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10.78Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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8.21Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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17.55University of New Hampshire1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevin Snow | 14.8% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Elliott Morrill | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Davidson | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Griffin Orr | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 7.7% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 9.0% |
| Nick Valente | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 2.0% |
| Patrick Penwell | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 14.5% |
| Scott Goodrich | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 4.2% |
| Michael Popp | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Dirk Johnson | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Lucas Adams | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Gershuny | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 51.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.