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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.36+4.44vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.82+5.46vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.73+4.99vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.64+4.33vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.05+5.86vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+4.99vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.44+2.47vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.49vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.11+1.59vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia2.39+3.85vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.49-1.96vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-4.69vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.83-5.19vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo2.44-0.42vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.97-3.77vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.62vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University2.68-4.56vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island2.19-3.30vs Predicted
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19University of New Hampshire1.24-1.57vs Predicted
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20U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-8.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.46Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.99College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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8.33Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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10.86SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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10.99University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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9.47U. S. Naval Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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9.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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10.59Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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13.85University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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9.04Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.31St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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7.81Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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13.58University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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11.23Roger Williams University2.970.0%1st Place
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10.38University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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12.44Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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14.7University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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17.43University of New Hampshire1.240.0%1st Place
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11.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevin Snow | 13.9% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Davidson | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Adams | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Nick Valente | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| Michael Popp | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Elliott Morrill | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Christopher Craven | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 9.8% |
| Brian Drumm | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 8.5% |
| Dirk Johnson | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Scott Goodrich | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 4.2% |
| Patrick Penwell | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 16.1% | 14.7% |
| Ryan Gershuny | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 14.3% | 49.8% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.