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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.36+4.40vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.44+7.08vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+4.27vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.16+6.32vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.19+9.26vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.05+5.05vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.49+2.22vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.82-0.69vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.21vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.83-2.55vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.97+0.25vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.11-1.10vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-2.98vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.64-5.73vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.73-7.07vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia2.39-2.41vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-6.42vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University2.68-5.47vs Predicted
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19University of Buffalo2.44-5.58vs Predicted
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20University of New Hampshire0.33-1.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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9.08U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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7.27St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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10.32University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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14.26University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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11.05SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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9.22Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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7.31Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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11.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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7.45Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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11.25Roger Williams University2.970.0%1st Place
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10.9Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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10.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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8.27Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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7.93College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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13.59University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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12.53Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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13.42University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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18.92University of New Hampshire0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevin Snow | 14.6% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Michael Popp | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.8% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Patrick Penwell | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Nick Valente | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 1.0% |
| Brian Drumm | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Dirk Johnson | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.3% |
| Connor Godfrey | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| Elliott Morrill | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Davidson | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 16.3% | 5.2% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Scott Goodrich | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 2.2% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 3.2% |
| Judas Taylor | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 7.6% | 77.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.