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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.19+13.33vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.36+3.40vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.44+6.27vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.83+3.48vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+2.06vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.11+4.74vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+4.12vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.82-0.68vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.22vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.49-1.09vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.97+0.26vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia2.39+1.88vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania3.16-2.30vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.64-5.75vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo2.44-1.62vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire0.33+2.78vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston3.73-9.25vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-8.19vs Predicted
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19Northeastern University2.68-6.64vs Predicted
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20SUNY Maritime College3.05-9.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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14.33University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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5.4Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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9.27U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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7.48Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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7.06St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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10.74Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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11.12University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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7.32Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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11.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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8.91Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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11.26Roger Williams University2.970.0%1st Place
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13.88University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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10.7University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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8.25Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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13.38University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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18.78University of New Hampshire0.330.0%1st Place
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7.75College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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9.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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12.36Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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11.0SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Penwell | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 20.2% | 7.9% |
| Nevin Snow | 14.4% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Popp | 6.1% | 3.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 0.8% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 0.8% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Dirk Johnson | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 0.9% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 5.2% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Lucas Adams | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 14.8% | 4.1% |
| Judas Taylor | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 8.3% | 74.1% |
| Ryan Davidson | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Elliott Morrill | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Scott Goodrich | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 2.3% |
| Nick Valente | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.