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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University0.65+10.56vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.22+5.20vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.86+3.27vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.71+6.27vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston1.81+0.72vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+3.29vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii0.47+2.84vs Predicted
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8Tulane University1.47-1.89vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University-1.38-3.13vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.48-0.19vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-1.45vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.97-3.78vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.12-1.85vs Predicted
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14George Washington University0.93-5.05vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.60-8.22vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College-0.29-3.33vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.64-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.56Christopher Newport University0.652.9%1st Place
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7.2Northeastern University1.227.5%1st Place
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6.27Georgetown University1.8611.2%1st Place
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10.27Fordham University0.713.8%1st Place
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5.72College of Charleston1.8111.9%1st Place
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9.29St. Mary's College of Maryland0.675.6%1st Place
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9.84University of Hawaii0.473.2%1st Place
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6.11Tulane University1.4710.2%1st Place
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5.87Jacksonville University-1.3811.4%1st Place
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9.81University of Vermont0.484.0%1st Place
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9.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.913.8%1st Place
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8.22Old Dominion University0.975.5%1st Place
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11.15University of Rhode Island0.122.4%1st Place
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8.95George Washington University0.935.2%1st Place
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6.78University of South Florida1.608.6%1st Place
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12.67Connecticut College-0.291.9%1st Place
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13.71University of Michigan-0.640.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Watlington | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 12.2% |
| Eva Ermlich | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Bates | 11.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 5.1% |
| Emma Tallman | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 5.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% |
| Malia Johnson | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
| Gabriela Vassel | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Emily Allen | 11.4% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Audrey Commerford | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 8.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 8.6% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Natalie Fear | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 21.3% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 15.6% | 34.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.