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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.82+6.46vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.64+6.22vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.36+2.48vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.73+3.87vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.83+2.43vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.16+4.48vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia2.39+6.97vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+3.12vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.71vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.49-1.07vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.05-0.12vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.11-1.12vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.19+1.72vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.44-4.95vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-7.89vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.97-4.87vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-7.53vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University2.68-5.40vs Predicted
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19University of New Hampshire0.33-0.15vs Predicted
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20University of Buffalo2.44-6.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.46Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.22Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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5.48Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.87College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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7.43Dartmouth College3.830.1%1st Place
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10.48University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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13.97University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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11.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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10.71University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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8.93Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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10.88SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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10.88Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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14.72University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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9.05U. S. Naval Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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7.11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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11.13Roger Williams University2.970.0%1st Place
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9.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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12.6Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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18.85University of New Hampshire0.330.0%1st Place
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13.65University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Forrer | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Adams | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nevin Snow | 14.4% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Davidson | 8.1% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 15.7% | 4.5% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 0.8% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.6% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 0.2% |
| Brian Drumm | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Nick Valente | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Connor Godfrey | 4.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Penwell | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 22.4% | 6.1% |
| Michael Popp | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Dirk Johnson | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 0.9% |
| Elliott Morrill | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Scott Goodrich | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% |
| Judas Taylor | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 76.2% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.