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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.05+9.75vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.82+5.36vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.73+4.98vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.97+7.17vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.36+0.30vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.49+2.90vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+0.25vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.64-0.06vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.44-0.12vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.27vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-1.38vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.11-1.22vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.44-3.64vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.68-1.63vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-4.38vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia2.39-2.40vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island2.19-2.78vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania3.16-7.65vs Predicted
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19University of Buffalo2.44-5.63vs Predicted
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20University of New Hampshire0.33-1.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.75SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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7.36Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.98College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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11.17Roger Williams University2.970.0%1st Place
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5.3Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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8.9Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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7.94Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.88U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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11.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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9.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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10.78Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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9.36Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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12.37Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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10.62University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.1%1st Place
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13.6University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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14.22University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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10.35University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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13.37University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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18.9University of New Hampshire0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Valente | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Davidson | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Dirk Johnson | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 13.4% | 14.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Michael Popp | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 1.2% |
| Elliott Morrill | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Connor Godfrey | 4.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Colin MURPHY | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Scott Goodrich | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 2.7% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 15.6% | 4.9% |
| Patrick Penwell | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 17.6% | 6.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 0.2% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 14.8% | 3.4% |
| Judas Taylor | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 76.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.