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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.64+7.17vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.05+8.79vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.11+7.61vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.49+4.78vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.82+2.31vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.44+3.02vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University4.36-1.43vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.68+4.16vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.44-0.05vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-2.98vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania3.16-0.66vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-0.52vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.19+1.66vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.97-2.89vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo2.44-1.60vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.73-8.20vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-6.45vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-8.33vs Predicted
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19University of New Hampshire0.33-0.16vs Predicted
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20University of Virginia2.39-6.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.17Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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10.79SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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10.61Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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8.78Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.31Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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9.02Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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5.57Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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12.16Northeastern University2.680.0%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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7.02St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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10.34University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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11.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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14.66University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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11.11Roger Williams University2.970.0%1st Place
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13.4University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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7.8College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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10.55University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.1%1st Place
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9.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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18.84University of New Hampshire0.330.0%1st Place
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13.77University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Adams | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nick Valente | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 0.6% |
| Connor Godfrey | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Brian Drumm | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin MURPHY | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Nevin Snow | 12.1% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Goodrich | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 2.8% |
| Michael Popp | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Patrick Penwell | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 21.6% | 6.5% |
| Dirk Johnson | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 0.8% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 4.7% |
| Ryan Davidson | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 5.1% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| Elliott Morrill | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Judas Taylor | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 9.0% | 75.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 14.9% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.