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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.25+8.29vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.77+5.19vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.79+4.20vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.20+5.54vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.25+4.25vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston3.89+0.69vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+2.59vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+0.87vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.88-2.37vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.61-2.19vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+2.36vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.34+1.30vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.87-1.71vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-2.85vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University3.51-6.81vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire0.78+1.73vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia1.99-2.60vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy3.67-10.37vs Predicted
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19University of Rhode Island2.23-5.52vs Predicted
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20University of Buffalo1.00-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.29SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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7.19Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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7.2Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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9.54Old Dominion University3.200.1%1st Place
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9.25Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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6.69College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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9.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.0%1st Place
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8.87St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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6.63Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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7.81Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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13.36University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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13.3Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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11.29University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
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11.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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8.19Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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17.73University of New Hampshire0.780.0%1st Place
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14.4University of Virginia1.990.0%1st Place
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7.63U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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13.48University of Rhode Island2.230.0%1st Place
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17.41University of Buffalo1.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Hill | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Charles Rees | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Pearson Potts | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Simone Staff | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 3.7% |
| Elise Gehling | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 3.2% |
| Drew Gallagher | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Max Neubelt | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Alex Post | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Emmet Todd | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 20.3% | 46.4% |
| Samuel Patterson | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 12.7% | 6.7% |
| Patrick Snow | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brad Carvalho | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 3.7% |
| Dante Iozzo | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 26.2% | 33.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.