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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34+3.36vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.56+8.12vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.47+3.88vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-1.30vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.22-0.51vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.87+2.76vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.38+0.02vs Predicted
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8Colgate University1.10+3.37vs Predicted
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10University of Maryland2.18-2.37vs Predicted
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11Queen's University0.63+2.21vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University2.21-4.28vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook0.94-0.63vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-2.94vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy1.22-4.16vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester0.94-3.98vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.65-7.35vs Predicted
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18University of Rochester0.94-5.98vs Predicted
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19Princeton University0.31-4.95vs Predicted
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20Syracuse University-1.14-3.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.1%1st Place
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10.12Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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6.88Fordham University2.470.1%1st Place
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2.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.3%1st Place
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4.49U. S. Naval Academy3.220.2%1st Place
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8.76SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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7.02Cornell University2.380.1%1st Place
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11.37Colgate University1.100.0%1st Place
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7.63University of Maryland2.180.0%1st Place
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13.21Queen's University0.630.0%1st Place
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7.72Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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12.37SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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11.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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10.84U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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12.02University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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9.65Columbia University1.650.0%1st Place
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12.02University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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14.05Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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16.77Syracuse University-1.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Clemence | 14.2% | 15.5% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 31.5% | 25.5% | 17.3% | 10.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 15.7% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sara Klik | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Prucnal | 3.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonah Burke-Kleinman | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 14.3% | 17.3% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 24.5% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| Claire Michaud | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 11.4% | 69.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.