← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+3.26vs Predicted
-
2Christopher Newport University2.24+4.39vs Predicted
-
3Fordham University2.61+2.15vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18+2.26vs Predicted
-
5Colgate University1.69+3.08vs Predicted
-
6University of Rochester-1.45+10.57vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College1.23+2.60vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University1.31+1.24vs Predicted
-
9Columbia University0.05+4.40vs Predicted
-
10Webb Institute2.29-3.72vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Naval Academy1.60-2.46vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Stony Brook2.59-6.62vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Military Academy0.51-1.03vs Predicted
-
14Queen's University0.19-1.23vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81-7.41vs Predicted
-
16University of Maryland1.00-5.49vs Predicted
-
17Princeton University0.09-3.58vs Predicted
-
18University of Rochester-1.45-1.43vs Predicted
-
19Syracuse University-0.93-3.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.26St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.2%1st Place
-
6.39Christopher Newport University2.240.1%1st Place
-
5.15Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
-
6.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.1%1st Place
-
8.08Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
-
16.57University of Rochester-1.450.0%1st Place
-
9.6SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
-
9.24Cornell University1.310.0%1st Place
-
13.4Columbia University0.050.0%1st Place
-
6.28Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
-
8.54U. S. Naval Academy1.600.1%1st Place
-
5.38SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
-
11.97U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
-
12.77Queen's University0.190.0%1st Place
-
7.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.1%1st Place
-
10.51University of Maryland1.000.0%1st Place
-
13.42Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
-
16.57University of Rochester-1.450.0%1st Place
-
15.6Syracuse University-0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmund Cooper | 16.7% | 18.4% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 11.2% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Fiala | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 19.5% | 54.8% | 0.0% |
| James Keegan | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Juckniess | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Fagundo | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 18.6% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 9.8% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Nora | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 13.4% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Danko | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Babier | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Storino | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Crouse | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 17.7% | 13.5% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Peter Fiala | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 19.5% | 54.8% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McCandless | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 28.4% | 29.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.