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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+3.28vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University2.24+4.38vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18+3.53vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.61+1.09vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.60+3.33vs Predicted
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6Colgate University1.69+2.15vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy0.51+5.04vs Predicted
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8University of Maryland1.00+2.34vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute2.29-2.96vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.31-0.42vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-1.45+5.50vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook2.59-6.60vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81-5.48vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.09-0.94vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.23-5.35vs Predicted
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16Syracuse University-0.93-0.29vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.05-3.46vs Predicted
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18Queen's University0.19-5.13vs Predicted
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19University of Rochester-1.45-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.28St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.2%1st Place
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6.38Christopher Newport University2.240.1%1st Place
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6.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.1%1st Place
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5.09Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Naval Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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8.15Colgate University1.690.0%1st Place
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12.04U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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10.34University of Maryland1.000.0%1st Place
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6.04Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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9.58Cornell University1.310.0%1st Place
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16.5University of Rochester-1.450.0%1st Place
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5.4SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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7.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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13.06Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
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9.65SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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15.71Syracuse University-0.930.0%1st Place
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13.54Columbia University0.050.0%1st Place
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12.87Queen's University0.190.0%1st Place
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16.5University of Rochester-1.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmund Cooper | 16.7% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 13.4% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Nora | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Danko | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Crouse | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Juckniess | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Fiala | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 21.4% | 52.4% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 14.5% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Storino | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Gross | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 17.3% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| James Keegan | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McCandless | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 13.2% | 31.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Fagundo | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 15.4% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Babier | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 15.6% | 14.6% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Fiala | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 21.4% | 52.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.