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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+2.81vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University2.24+3.66vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.61+1.62vs Predicted
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4Columbia University0.05+8.31vs Predicted
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5U. S. Military Academy0.51+6.02vs Predicted
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6Colgate University1.69+1.28vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester-1.45+9.09vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute2.29-2.70vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-3.32vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.23+3.55vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.31-2.39vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81-4.84vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland-0.60+1.18vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.23-5.47vs Predicted
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15Queen's University0.19-2.92vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.09-3.50vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy1.60-9.30vs Predicted
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18Syracuse University-0.93-3.05vs Predicted
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19University of Rochester-1.45-2.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.81St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.2%1st Place
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5.66Christopher Newport University2.240.1%1st Place
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4.62Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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12.31Columbia University0.050.0%1st Place
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11.02U. S. Military Academy0.510.0%1st Place
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7.28Colgate University1.690.1%1st Place
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16.09University of Rochester-1.450.0%1st Place
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5.3Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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5.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.1%1st Place
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13.55SUNY Stony Brook-0.230.0%1st Place
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8.61Cornell University1.310.0%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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14.18University of Maryland-0.600.0%1st Place
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8.53SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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12.08Queen's University0.190.0%1st Place
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12.5Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Naval Academy1.600.1%1st Place
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14.95Syracuse University-0.930.0%1st Place
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16.09University of Rochester-1.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmund Cooper | 21.0% | 17.5% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 9.0% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 14.7% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Fagundo | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Danko | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bicks | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Fiala | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 18.0% | 46.8% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 12.8% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 9.0% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Lithen | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 15.1% | 13.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Juckniess | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Storino | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Dunitz | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 20.8% | 12.6% | 0.0% |
| James Keegan | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Babier | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Gross | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Nora | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McCandless | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 13.6% | 15.7% | 19.8% | 22.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Fiala | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 18.0% | 46.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.