Race 1B

commonwealth-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

90.0%
Within 2 Positions
0.9
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Alexander Tong 60.5% 24.0% 9.3% 4.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Karl Ryder 8.0% 12.3% 17.4% 16.5% 13.8% 14.6% 9.5% 5.1% 2.5% 0.3%
Simon Bertocci 10.9% 20.0% 19.2% 17.0% 14.7% 9.7% 5.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Madeleine Whittier 5.2% 15.3% 17.0% 16.2% 15.5% 13.3% 8.3% 6.8% 2.0% 0.4%
Alexander Calderwood 6.0% 10.9% 10.2% 15.4% 14.9% 16.8% 13.0% 8.3% 3.9% 0.6%
Kelsey Martins 3.1% 5.1% 5.4% 7.0% 8.7% 12.2% 14.8% 21.3% 19.7% 2.7%
Francis Guiton 2.8% 5.0% 10.9% 11.3% 13.9% 13.4% 18.3% 15.0% 8.1% 1.3%
Nathaniel Douglass 2.2% 4.4% 7.3% 7.3% 10.6% 11.0% 15.2% 20.2% 19.3% 2.5%
Carl Noble 1.2% 2.5% 3.2% 4.4% 5.7% 7.6% 13.0% 18.0% 37.4% 7.0%
Regan Yeung 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1% 2.0% 3.3% 6.5% 85.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.