Race 2B

commonwealth-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Karl Ryder 7.7% 15.6% 15.1% 16.9% 14.2% 13.0% 8.6% 6.1% 2.5% 0.3%
Francis Guiton 4.4% 5.5% 8.3% 11.5% 12.5% 14.5% 16.9% 14.6% 10.5% 1.3%
Simon Bertocci 10.7% 18.7% 19.8% 17.5% 14.9% 9.5% 6.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Alexander Tong 58.7% 28.5% 8.9% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Madeleine Whittier 7.2% 11.8% 17.7% 16.6% 16.7% 12.2% 10.0% 5.9% 1.8% 0.1%
Alexander Calderwood 6.3% 10.0% 12.4% 14.8% 15.4% 14.7% 12.5% 9.5% 4.0% 0.4%
Kelsey Martins 1.4% 3.4% 6.6% 8.3% 9.2% 12.5% 16.1% 21.8% 17.4% 3.3%
Carl Noble 1.5% 2.0% 3.5% 4.6% 5.6% 10.5% 11.3% 15.8% 38.7% 6.5%
Nathaniel Douglass 1.9% 4.4% 6.9% 6.7% 10.1% 12.1% 16.3% 21.1% 17.7% 2.8%
Regan Yeung 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 2.2% 3.3% 6.5% 85.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.