Race 3B

commonwealth-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Alexander Tong 60.0% 24.5% 9.4% 4.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Karl Ryder 8.1% 11.0% 17.1% 16.3% 15.7% 12.5% 10.1% 5.9% 2.7% 0.6%
Madeleine Whittier 7.4% 12.0% 14.6% 16.2% 15.8% 15.0% 10.8% 4.9% 2.8% 0.5%
Simon Bertocci 9.1% 20.9% 20.5% 17.8% 13.5% 8.5% 5.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3%
Nathaniel Douglass 3.1% 5.1% 6.5% 8.2% 7.9% 10.3% 14.6% 18.6% 17.1% 8.6%
Alexander Calderwood 5.9% 10.6% 13.0% 12.1% 14.7% 14.6% 13.3% 9.6% 4.9% 1.3%
Kelsey Martins 1.9% 3.8% 6.3% 7.2% 8.2% 12.5% 15.7% 19.8% 16.0% 8.6%
Carl Noble 1.5% 2.4% 3.3% 5.0% 6.1% 8.7% 9.4% 13.7% 27.5% 22.4%
Francis Guiton 2.5% 8.4% 7.6% 11.4% 13.3% 13.2% 15.1% 14.3% 10.3% 3.9%
Andrew Snodgrass 0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 3.6% 4.0% 5.2% 10.3% 17.9% 53.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.