Race 4B

commonwealth-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

90.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Karl Ryder 8.7% 13.7% 15.0% 16.7% 13.5% 11.9% 12.4% 4.7% 2.5% 0.9%
Alexander Tong 60.0% 25.5% 10.7% 3.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Madeleine Whittier 7.0% 13.2% 14.6% 13.2% 17.9% 14.6% 10.7% 6.0% 2.3% 0.5%
Alexander Calderwood 4.7% 9.5% 11.8% 15.2% 15.1% 16.1% 11.5% 9.7% 5.2% 1.2%
Simon Bertocci 11.2% 19.5% 20.5% 19.0% 12.2% 7.8% 5.5% 3.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Nathaniel Douglass 2.5% 5.1% 6.4% 6.1% 9.1% 12.8% 14.2% 16.9% 17.9% 9.0%
Francis Guiton 2.5% 5.9% 9.1% 11.9% 13.8% 13.9% 15.3% 15.9% 8.2% 3.5%
Kelsey Martins 1.9% 4.0% 7.2% 7.5% 9.4% 10.8% 14.0% 18.5% 17.0% 9.7%
Carl Noble 1.1% 2.5% 3.1% 5.0% 5.1% 8.0% 11.0% 15.2% 27.6% 21.4%
Andrew Snodgrass 0.4% 1.1% 1.6% 2.4% 3.5% 3.8% 5.3% 9.8% 18.4% 53.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.