Race 5B

commonwealth-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Samuel Campbell 17.6% 17.0% 16.9% 14.3% 11.3% 11.1% 7.0% 3.5% 1.3% 0.0%
Molly Pleskus 38.3% 24.1% 18.2% 10.7% 5.3% 2.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Karl Ryder 11.9% 13.9% 14.5% 13.8% 17.5% 12.3% 9.0% 5.2% 1.8% 0.1%
Nathaniel Douglass 2.9% 5.0% 5.7% 9.2% 9.2% 12.0% 15.7% 21.0% 16.1% 3.2%
Alexander Calderwood 9.4% 11.4% 12.0% 13.9% 14.8% 14.4% 11.0% 7.7% 4.9% 0.5%
Kelsey Martins 4.7% 5.2% 6.3% 6.9% 8.9% 12.1% 14.5% 19.6% 19.1% 2.7%
William Manning 7.0% 13.0% 11.3% 15.7% 15.2% 13.8% 13.0% 7.4% 3.3% 0.3%
Francis Guiton 5.6% 8.5% 9.8% 10.4% 12.6% 13.0% 15.3% 14.7% 9.4% 0.7%
Carl Noble 2.4% 1.7% 4.8% 4.8% 4.4% 8.0% 11.3% 18.4% 37.0% 7.2%
Regan Yeung 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 2.1% 2.4% 7.0% 85.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.