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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+2.71vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.68+2.92vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.33+0.52vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.07+2.48vs Predicted
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5Hamilton College0.85+4.29vs Predicted
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6Columbia University2.43-0.51vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.63-1.97vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.19+0.69vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.11-2.56vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.98-0.91vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.26-6.20vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology-0.22-1.50vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology0.11-2.97vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology-0.22-3.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.2%1st Place
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4.92U. S. Naval Academy2.680.1%1st Place
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3.52Georgetown University3.330.2%1st Place
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6.48Cornell University2.070.1%1st Place
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9.29Hamilton College0.850.0%1st Place
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5.49Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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5.03SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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8.69Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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6.44Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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9.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.980.0%1st Place
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5.8SUNY Maritime College2.260.1%1st Place
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11.5Stevens Institute of Technology-0.220.0%1st Place
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11.03Rochester Institute of Technology0.110.0%1st Place
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11.5Stevens Institute of Technology-0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Zacher | 19.7% | 17.7% | 15.8% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Timmins | 11.7% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Eichler | 21.5% | 17.6% | 16.8% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Goldsmith | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| William McIvor | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 15.2% | 18.2% | 18.6% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 9.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 10.8% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Heather Richardson | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 17.6% | 12.1% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alex Wood | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 15.6% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Scott Lubliner | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter McCauley | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 21.0% | 47.5% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Smith | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 16.8% | 25.2% | 32.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McCauley | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 21.0% | 47.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.