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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.79+4.82vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.27+5.80vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.82+6.65vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.65+2.29vs Predicted
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5Boston University3.13+3.52vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.41+1.14vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.92+2.17vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.38-0.48vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.97-0.21vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.95-1.10vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.34+0.40vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.76-1.94vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.58-2.71vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.85-0.62vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.63-8.67vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.81-6.58vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.38-2.47vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.07-0.30vs Predicted
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19Columbia University0.05-1.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.82Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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7.8Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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9.65Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.820.0%1st Place
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6.29Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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8.52Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.14University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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9.17Bowdoin College2.920.0%1st Place
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7.52Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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8.79Roger Williams University2.970.1%1st Place
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8.9University of Rhode Island2.950.1%1st Place
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11.4Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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10.06Yale University2.760.0%1st Place
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10.29Connecticut College2.580.0%1st Place
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13.38University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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6.33U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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9.42Boston University2.810.0%1st Place
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14.53North Carolina State University1.380.0%1st Place
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17.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.070.0%1st Place
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17.28Columbia University0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Mollerus | 10.8% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.5% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chloe Lepert | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Duncan Swain | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Cook | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Hawk | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Robert Floyd | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dirk Johnson | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Elise Gehling | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Marly Isler | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Giordano | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% |
| Gary Prieto | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Welsh | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| David Rogers | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 22.3% | 19.2% | 5.9% |
| Harry Hoffman | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 9.3% | 27.1% | 49.7% |
| Michael Fagundo | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 11.5% | 29.8% | 41.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.