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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.65+5.34vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.27+5.84vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.79+2.90vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.38+3.32vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.92+4.38vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.76+3.67vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.95+2.08vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.34+3.58vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.82+0.40vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.81-0.47vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.13-2.65vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.38+2.90vs Predicted
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13Columbia University0.05+4.27vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.84-0.65vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.58-4.61vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont3.41-8.96vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.63-10.59vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.97-9.17vs Predicted
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19U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.07-1.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.34Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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7.84Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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5.9Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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7.32Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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9.38Bowdoin College2.920.0%1st Place
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9.67Yale University2.760.0%1st Place
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9.08University of Rhode Island2.950.1%1st Place
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11.58Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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9.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.820.0%1st Place
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9.53Boston University2.810.0%1st Place
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8.35Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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14.9North Carolina State University1.380.0%1st Place
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17.27Columbia University0.050.0%1st Place
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13.35University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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10.39Connecticut College2.580.0%1st Place
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7.04University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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8.83Roger Williams University2.970.1%1st Place
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17.44U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Swain | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Allman | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 12.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Floyd | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Hawk | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Marly Isler | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Elise Gehling | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
| Chloe Lepert | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Charles Welsh | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Cook | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| David Rogers | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 12.1% | 26.0% | 19.5% | 5.5% |
| Michael Fagundo | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 9.9% | 29.4% | 43.3% |
| Mason Wolters | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 9.5% | 3.0% |
| Alexander Giordano | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Nate Jermain | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dirk Johnson | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Harry Hoffman | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 10.1% | 27.7% | 46.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.