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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.10+5.35vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.51+3.03vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.64+5.12vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.84+3.47vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.02+1.64vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.91+1.33vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.55-1.96vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.47-2.76vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24+0.70vs Predicted
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10Maine Maritime Academy1.62+1.68vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.12-0.86vs Predicted
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12McGill University1.05+1.38vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.25-3.37vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.65-5.81vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire1.65-3.44vs Predicted
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17Harvard University1.67-5.39vs Predicted
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18Bates College-0.21-2.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.35Yale University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.03University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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8.12University of Rhode Island2.640.1%1st Place
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7.47Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.64Brown University3.020.1%1st Place
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7.33Tufts University2.910.1%1st Place
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5.04Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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5.24Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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9.7Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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11.68Maine Maritime Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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10.14Boston University2.120.0%1st Place
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13.38McGill University1.050.0%1st Place
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9.63Connecticut College2.250.0%1st Place
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8.19Bowdoin College2.650.0%1st Place
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11.56University of New Hampshire1.650.0%1st Place
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11.61Harvard University1.670.0%1st Place
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15.9Bates College-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa Warner | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Factor | 14.1% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lyle Fielding | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Conor Lodge | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Jessica Claflin | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Meleny | 6.9% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mullins | 12.9% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Needham | 13.4% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Graef | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 0.9% |
| Christopher Hulse | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 4.8% |
| Alejandro Bancalari | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 1.4% |
| Emerson Krock | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 14.9% | 26.8% | 14.3% |
| Stephen Sweriduk | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Phoebe Sprague | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Edwards | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 3.7% |
| Nick Waldo | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 5.1% |
| Ryan Lovering | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 66.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.