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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.20+1.77vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.25+5.04vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.79+0.56vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.49+0.25vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.83+0.60vs Predicted
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6Yale University0.62+2.96vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.05-1.81vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.19-3.20vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College0.70-0.32vs Predicted
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11Amherst College-1.32+2.88vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University-1.06+1.41vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut-0.96+0.12vs Predicted
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14Sacred Heart University-0.03-3.42vs Predicted
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15Bates College-0.11-4.14vs Predicted
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16Wesleyan University-1.27-2.26vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University-0.77-4.39vs Predicted
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18University of New Hampshire-1.29-4.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.77Brown University3.200.3%1st Place
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7.04Northeastern University1.250.0%1st Place
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3.56Brown University2.790.2%1st Place
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4.25Roger Williams University2.490.1%1st Place
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5.6University of Rhode Island1.830.1%1st Place
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8.96Yale University0.620.0%1st Place
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5.19Tufts University2.050.1%1st Place
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4.8University of Vermont2.190.1%1st Place
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8.68Dartmouth College0.700.0%1st Place
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13.88Amherst College-1.320.0%1st Place
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13.41Fairfield University-1.060.0%1st Place
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13.12University of Connecticut-0.960.0%1st Place
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10.58Sacred Heart University-0.030.0%1st Place
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10.86Bates College-0.110.0%1st Place
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13.74Wesleyan University-1.270.0%1st Place
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12.61Salve Regina University-0.770.0%1st Place
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13.92University of New Hampshire-1.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsey Baab | 28.8% | 24.0% | 17.3% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Shapiro | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Alexander | 18.7% | 18.9% | 16.2% | 16.3% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Kennedy | 14.3% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 16.0% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Girard | 6.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Lewis | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Sam Gates | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 14.8% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Craig | 11.0% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Sullivan | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Amelia Vinciguerra | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 16.2% | 17.0% | 19.4% |
| Katherine Fox | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 16.0% | 16.1% | 15.3% |
| Justin Morano | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 12.1% |
| William Herlihy | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Julie Self | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Josh Atchley | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
| Mara Terchunian | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 8.3% |
| Matthew Dawley | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 17.3% | 20.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.