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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.79+2.50vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.19+2.80vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.49+1.23vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.90-0.59vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.83+0.69vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.25+1.18vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College0.70+0.45vs Predicted
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9Bates College-0.11+1.21vs Predicted
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10Tufts University0.51-1.20vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.41-6.57vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University-0.77-0.37vs Predicted
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13Wesleyan University0.55-4.26vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-1.29-1.34vs Predicted
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15Amherst College-1.32-2.35vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University-3.79-0.46vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut-2.15-2.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.5Brown University2.790.2%1st Place
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4.8University of Vermont2.190.1%1st Place
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4.23Roger Williams University2.490.1%1st Place
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3.41Brown University2.900.2%1st Place
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5.69University of Rhode Island1.830.1%1st Place
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7.18Northeastern University1.250.0%1st Place
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8.45Dartmouth College0.700.0%1st Place
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10.21Bates College-0.110.0%1st Place
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8.8Tufts University0.510.0%1st Place
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4.43Yale University2.410.1%1st Place
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11.63Salve Regina University-0.770.0%1st Place
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8.74Wesleyan University0.550.0%1st Place
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12.66University of New Hampshire-1.290.0%1st Place
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12.65Amherst College-1.320.0%1st Place
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15.54Fairfield University-3.790.0%1st Place
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14.07University of Connecticut-2.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Alexander | 20.5% | 19.6% | 16.5% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Craig | 11.2% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Kennedy | 15.0% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Eve | 21.4% | 20.6% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Girard | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Shapiro | 4.0% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Sullivan | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 15.7% | 14.5% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julie Self | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 16.3% | 17.0% | 14.1% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Grace Olsen | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 14.3% | 15.7% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Claire Huebner | 12.8% | 11.9% | 15.3% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mara Terchunian | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 18.1% | 21.0% | 16.9% | 8.1% | 0.6% |
| Nathaniel Barton | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 16.7% | 14.5% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Dawley | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 19.0% | 25.2% | 17.4% | 2.8% |
| Amelia Vinciguerra | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 18.9% | 25.2% | 17.9% | 2.2% |
| Michael Loturco | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 9.5% | 81.3% |
| Marissa Eklund | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 9.4% | 19.1% | 44.2% | 13.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.