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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.51+4.03vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.10+4.41vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.55+2.10vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.47+1.39vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.25+4.39vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.84+1.62vs Predicted
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7McGill University1.05+6.30vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.64-0.04vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.65-0.71vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.02-3.32vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.12-0.93vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire1.65-0.41vs Predicted
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13Harvard University1.67-1.37vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-4.26vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy1.62-3.35vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.91-8.80vs Predicted
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17Bates College-0.21-1.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.03University of Vermont3.510.2%1st Place
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6.41Yale University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.1Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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5.39Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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9.39Connecticut College2.250.0%1st Place
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7.62Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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13.3McGill University1.050.0%1st Place
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7.96University of Rhode Island2.640.1%1st Place
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8.29Bowdoin College2.650.0%1st Place
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6.68Brown University3.020.1%1st Place
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10.07Boston University2.120.0%1st Place
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11.59University of New Hampshire1.650.0%1st Place
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11.63Harvard University1.670.0%1st Place
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9.74Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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11.65Maine Maritime Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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7.2Tufts University2.910.1%1st Place
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15.94Bates College-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Factor | 15.8% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genoa Warner | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mullins | 13.2% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Needham | 13.1% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Sweriduk | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Conor Lodge | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Emerson Krock | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 14.2% | 28.1% | 12.2% |
| Lyle Fielding | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Phoebe Sprague | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Jessica Claflin | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Bancalari | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 1.2% |
| Christopher Edwards | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 4.8% |
| Nick Waldo | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 14.8% | 11.4% | 5.2% |
| Richard Graef | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Hulse | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 15.1% | 4.6% |
| Andrew Meleny | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Lovering | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 11.2% | 69.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.