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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.97+4.20vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.57+1.69vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.20+4.69vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.83+4.94vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.82+0.58vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.18+1.96vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.84+1.92vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.76-2.24vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.64-2.52vs Predicted
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10Bates College0.78+2.28vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire0.10+3.08vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.41-4.94vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.97-1.22vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy0.52-0.90vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.69-2.46vs Predicted
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16McGill University-0.38-0.93vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.49-10.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.2Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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3.69Yale University3.570.2%1st Place
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7.69Bowdoin College2.200.0%1st Place
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8.94University of Vermont1.830.0%1st Place
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5.58Brown University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.96Roger Williams University2.180.1%1st Place
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8.92Boston University1.840.0%1st Place
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5.76Tufts University2.760.1%1st Place
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6.48Connecticut College2.640.1%1st Place
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12.28Bates College0.780.0%1st Place
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14.08University of New Hampshire0.100.0%1st Place
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7.06Northeastern University2.410.1%1st Place
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11.78University of Rhode Island0.970.0%1st Place
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13.1Maine Maritime Academy0.520.0%1st Place
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12.54Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.690.0%1st Place
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15.07McGill University-0.380.0%1st Place
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6.88Harvard University2.490.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Naughton | 12.7% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Nickbarg | 21.6% | 18.3% | 15.4% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily McNeil | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alden Winder | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Sky Adams | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Campbell Duffy | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Joseph Ballow | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| T. Max Bulger | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Clark | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Pedersen | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 11.0% | 6.4% |
| Whit Durant | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 21.4% | 26.0% |
| Vincent Marchetto | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Douglas Young | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 4.1% |
| Cameron Murphy | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 15.9% | 17.6% | 12.4% |
| Santiago Enrique | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 16.3% | 14.7% | 8.2% |
| Stephanie Clement | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 19.4% | 42.1% |
| Ben Lamont | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.