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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.76+4.81vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.82+3.65vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.57+0.74vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.41+3.15vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.64+1.17vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.97-0.60vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.84+1.96vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.20-0.37vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.83+0.16vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.18-2.28vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.49-4.06vs Predicted
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12Bates College0.78+0.23vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy0.52+0.01vs Predicted
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14McGill University-0.38+1.03vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire0.10-1.00vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island0.97-4.20vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.69-4.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.81Tufts University2.760.1%1st Place
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5.65Brown University2.820.1%1st Place
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3.74Yale University3.570.2%1st Place
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7.15Northeastern University2.410.1%1st Place
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6.17Connecticut College2.640.1%1st Place
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5.4Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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8.96Boston University1.840.0%1st Place
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7.63Bowdoin College2.200.1%1st Place
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9.16University of Vermont1.830.0%1st Place
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7.72Roger Williams University2.180.0%1st Place
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6.94Harvard University2.490.1%1st Place
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12.23Bates College0.780.0%1st Place
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13.01Maine Maritime Academy0.520.0%1st Place
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15.03McGill University-0.380.0%1st Place
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14.0University of New Hampshire0.100.0%1st Place
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11.8University of Rhode Island0.970.0%1st Place
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12.61Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Max Bulger | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sky Adams | 9.3% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Nickbarg | 20.7% | 19.2% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Marchetto | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Clark | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Naughton | 10.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Ballow | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Emily McNeil | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Alden Winder | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Campbell Duffy | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Ben Lamont | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Pedersen | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 16.3% | 13.2% | 5.9% |
| Cameron Murphy | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 17.5% | 11.3% |
| Stephanie Clement | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 18.8% | 44.4% |
| Whit Durant | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 15.8% | 21.9% | 22.8% |
| Douglas Young | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 5.1% |
| Santiago Enrique | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 9.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.