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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.57+2.53vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.82+3.46vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.64+3.14vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.83+4.77vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.26+2.26vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.41+0.97vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.97-1.86vs Predicted
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8Harvard University1.90+0.42vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.84-0.09vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.18-2.51vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island0.97+0.62vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.41-5.24vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy0.52-0.14vs Predicted
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14Bates College0.78-1.68vs Predicted
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15McGill University-0.38-0.09vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire0.10-2.01vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.69-4.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.53Yale University3.570.2%1st Place
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5.46Brown University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.14Connecticut College2.640.1%1st Place
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8.77University of Vermont1.830.0%1st Place
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7.26Tufts University2.260.1%1st Place
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6.97Bowdoin College2.410.1%1st Place
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5.14Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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8.42Harvard University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.91Boston University1.840.0%1st Place
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7.49Roger Williams University2.180.1%1st Place
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11.62University of Rhode Island0.970.0%1st Place
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6.76Northeastern University2.410.1%1st Place
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12.86Maine Maritime Academy0.520.0%1st Place
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12.32Bates College0.780.0%1st Place
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14.91McGill University-0.380.0%1st Place
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13.99University of New Hampshire0.100.0%1st Place
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12.45Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Nickbarg | 23.9% | 19.1% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sky Adams | 10.5% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Clark | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alden Winder | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Daniel Slate | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Fiske | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carolyn Naughton | 11.8% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Millham | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Ballow | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Campbell Duffy | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Douglas Young | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| Vincent Marchetto | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Murphy | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 17.0% | 15.6% | 12.0% |
| Rachel Pedersen | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 7.5% |
| Stephanie Clement | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 17.6% | 43.6% |
| Whit Durant | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 22.9% | 20.7% |
| Santiago Enrique | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 9.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.